Note: All odds referenced are from 6:00 pm PT on Tuesday July
21, 2020.
Following up on our previous post regarding the restart of the NBA season, today we will look at the odds posted for the 2020 MLB season. As you probably already know, the season has been cut from a 162 game marathon to a 60 game sprint. But don’t think that less games means DraftKings and FanDuel wont try taking advantage of anyone and everyone. Below is a breakdown of how these companies will screw you over when betting on the MLB.
When flipping a fair coin, the odds of heads are 50%, and the odds
of tails are 50%. The sum of which is 100%. Similarly,
rolling a fair six sided die gives a 16.67% of each number (1 through 6) being
rolled. Also, a sum of 100%.
You would think this would also be the case when it comes to the
odds that sportsbooks offer. From the odds posted, we can calculate
the implied probabilities that certain events occur. In theory,
these implied probabilities should add up to 100% like the coin and die
examples. But is that the case?
Let's take a look at what DraftKings and FanDuel are offering
customers. First, let’s look at the bets
offered on Win Totals for 2020. Here are the odds currently posted
at DraftKings...
Note: At the time of referencing these odds, DraftKings had not
posted odds for the Los Angeles Angels or Toronto Blue Jays.
As you can see, each team’s over and under have a calculated
probability that we ad together to get the sum of implied probabilities. This sum should theoretically add up to 100%,
but at DraftKings the average sum is 105.45% and at FanDuel it is 104.99%. So, there is a 5.45% and 4.99% tax at
DraftKings and FanDuel respectively.
But that’s not the only way DraftKings and FanDuel screw you
over. There is another sneaky way in
which they do this. In any game (let’s ignore
the extremely rare case of a tie) there will be a
winner and a loser. Thus, the total
number of wins by all teams in a season must add up to the number of games
played in that season. However, if we
add up the win totals offered by each company this is not the case. The “game tax” is the number of wins above
the actual number of games to be played.
At DraftKings this is 8 games for the 28 teams available at the time
these odds were referenced. At FanDuel the
“game tax” is 5 games for the 30 teams. Just another
trick that these companies use to deceive their customers.
Now let’s look at the World Series odds:
As we can see, at DraftKings the implied probabilities add up to 126.83%. At
FanDuel they add up to 124.12%. Every percentage above 100% is a tax
they're charging you on your bet, hence how they're screwing you. So at
DraftKings, you're being charged an additional 26.83% and at FanDuel an
additional 24.12%.
This is also the case with the League Winner odds.
In the American Legaue, we have DraftKings adding up to 121.76% and at FanDuel adding up to 118.59%. Again taxes of 21.76% and 18.59% respectively. Here are the NL odds:
Over in the National League, at DraftKings the odds add up to 121.93%,
while adding up to 116.63% at FanDuel. Again taxes of 21.93% and 16.63%
respectively.
Finally, I have laid out all the taxes charged on each Division
Winner at both sites. As you can see the
taxes range from 11 to 16%.
We at betX will continue to keep bettors informed on how they're
being taken advantage of by these companies. The betX platform aims
to eliminate the over-the-top taxes that these sportsbooks have grown
accustomed to charging. Stay updated and informed via our social
media pages and at betxapp.com.
